From the first day of his presidency to his campaign for reelection, Donald Trump has sounded the alarm about crime in the Us. Trump vowed to end "American carnage" in his countdown address in 2017. This year, he ran for reelection on a platform of "law and order."

Every bit Trump's presidency draws to a shut, here is a look at what we know – and don't know – about law-breaking in the U.Southward., based on a Pew Research Center analysis of data from the federal government and other sources.

Criminal offense is a regular topic of discussion in the United States. We conducted this analysis to learn more virtually U.Southward. offense patterns and how those patterns have changed over time.

The analysis relies on statistics published past the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the statistical arm of the U.Southward. Department of Justice. FBI statistics were accessed through the Criminal offense Information Explorer. BJS statistics were accessed through the National Crime Victimization Survey information analysis tool. Data near the federal government's transition to the National Incident-Based Reporting System was drawn from the FBI and BJS, equally well as from media reports.

To mensurate public attitudes most criminal offence in the U.S., nosotros relied on survey data from Gallup and Pew Research Eye.

How much criminal offence is there in the U.Southward.?

Information technology'south difficult to say for sure. The 2 primary sources of government crime statistics – the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – both paint an incomplete motion-picture show, though efforts at improvement are underway.

The FBI publishes almanac data on crimes that have been reported to the constabulary, but not those that haven't been reported. The FBI also looks mainly at a handful of specific violent and property crimes, but not many other types of offense, such as drug crime. And while the FBI's information is based on information it receives from thousands of federal, state, county, urban center and other police departments, non all agencies participate every year. In 2019, the well-nigh recent total year available, the FBI received data from around eight-in-ten agencies.

BJS, for its part, tracks crime past fielding a large almanac survey of Americans ages 12 and older and request them whether they were the victim of a law-breaking in the past half dozen months. One advantage of this approach is that it captures both reported and unreported crimes. Just the BJS survey has limitations of its own. Similar the FBI, it focuses mainly on a handful of tearing and property crimes while excluding other kinds of offense. And since the BJS information is based on after-the-fact interviews with victims, it cannot provide data about one peculiarly high-contour type of law-breaking: murder.

All those caveats aside, looking at the FBI and BJS statistics side-by-side does give researchers a practiced picture of U.Southward. trigger-happy and property offense rates and how they have changed over time.

Which kinds of crime are about and least mutual?

Theft is most common property crime, assault is most common violent crime

Holding criminal offense in the U.South. is much more common than vehement crime. In 2019, the FBI reported a total of ii,109.ix holding crimes per 100,000 people, compared with 379.4 violent crimes per 100,000 people.

Past far the virtually common form of property criminal offence in 2019 was larceny/theft, followed by burglary and motor vehicle theft. Among violent crimes, aggravated attack was the most common offense, followed by robbery, rape, and murder/not-negligent manslaughter.

BJS tracks a slightly different set up of offenses from the FBI, simply it finds the same overall patterns, with theft the most mutual form of property crime in 2019 and attack the most common form of violent crime.

How have criminal offense rates in the U.South. changed over time?

Both the FBI and BJS data testify dramatic declines in U.S. vehement and property criminal offence rates since the early 1990s, when crime spiked beyond much of the nation.

U.S. violent and property crime rate have plunged since 1990s, regardless of data source

Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2019, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-68%), murder/non-negligent manslaughter (-47%) and aggravated assault (-43%). (Information technology'southward not possible to calculate the modify in the rape charge per unit during this period because the FBI revised its definition of the criminal offense in 2013.) Meanwhile, the property criminal offence charge per unit brutal 55%, with big declines in the rates of break-in (-69%), motor vehicle theft (-64%) and larceny/theft (-49%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those reported by the FBI. Per BJS, the overall violent criminal offence charge per unit fell 74% betwixt 1993 and 2019, while the property criminal offense rate barbarous 71%.

How practise Americans perceive criminal offence in their state?

Americans tend to believe criminal offence is up, even when the data shows information technology is downwards.

Americans tend to believe crime is up nationally, less so locally

In 20 of 24 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993, at least 60% of U.S. adults have said there is more than crime nationally than at that place was the year earlier, despite the by and large down trend in national violent and property criminal offense rates during most of that menses.

While perceptions of rising crime at the national level are mutual, fewer Americans believe criminal offense is upwardly in their own communities. In all 23 Gallup surveys that have included the question since 1993, no more than almost half of Americans accept said crime is upwardly in their surface area compared with the year before.

This year, the gap betwixt the share of Americans who say criminal offence is up nationally and the share who say information technology is upward locally (78% vs. 38%) is the widest Gallup has always recorded.

Public attitudes about crime too differ past Americans' partisan affiliation, race and ethnicity and other factors. For example, in a summertime Pew Inquiry Eye survey, 74% of registered voters who support Trump said trigger-happy criminal offense was "very important" to their vote in this year's presidential election, compared with a far smaller share of Joe Biden supporters (46%).

How does crime in the U.S. differ by demographic characteristics?

At that place are some demographic differences in both victimization and offending rates, according to BJS.

In its 2019 survey of criminal offence victims, BJS plant wide differences by age and income when it comes to existence the victim of a violent crime. Younger people and those with lower incomes were far more likely to written report being victimized than older and higher-income people. For case, the victimization rate amid those with annual incomes of less than $25,000 was more than twice the rate amid those with incomes of $50,000 or more.

There were no major differences in victimization rates between male and female respondents or between those who identified as White, Black or Hispanic. But the victimization rate among Asian Americans was substantially lower than amidst other racial and ethnic groups.

When it comes to those who commit crimes, the same BJS survey asks victims about the perceived demographic characteristics of the offenders in the incidents they experienced. In 2019, those who are male person, younger people and those who are Black accounted for considerably larger shares of perceived offenders in fierce incidents than their respective shares of the U.S. population. As with all surveys, however, there are several potential sources of error, including the possibility that offense victims' perceptions are incorrect.

How does criminal offence in the U.S. differ geographically?

There are big differences in violent and property law-breaking rates from state to country and city to urban center.

In 2019, there were more than than 800 vehement crimes per 100,000 residents in Alaska and New Mexico, compared with fewer than 200 per 100,000 people in Maine and New Hampshire, according to the FBI.

Even in similarly sized cities within the aforementioned land, offense rates tin can vary widely. Oakland and Long Beach, California, had comparable populations in 2019 (434,036 vs. 467,974), only Oakland's violent offense rate was more than than double the rate in Long Beach. The FBI notes that various factors might influence an area'southward crime charge per unit, including its population density and economic conditions.

See also: Despite contempo violence, Chicago is far from the U.S. 'murder capital'

What percentage of crimes are reported to police, and what percentage are solved?

Near vehement and belongings crimes in the U.S. are not reported to constabulary, and nearly of the crimes that are reported are not solved.

Fewer than half of crimes in the U.S. are reported, and fewer than half of reported crimes are solved

In its almanac survey, BJS asks crime victims whether they reported their crime to police or not. In 2019, merely twoscore.9% of violent crimes and 32.5% of household property crimes were reported to authorities. BJS notes that there are a diversity of reasons why crime might not be reported, including fear of reprisal or "getting the offender in trouble," a feeling that police "would non or could not do anything to help," or a belief that the criminal offence is "a personal effect or too trivial to report."

Most of the crimes that are reported to constabulary, meanwhile, are not solved, at least based on an FBI measure known as the clearance charge per unit. That'due south the share of cases each year that are airtight, or "cleared," through the arrest, charging and referral of a suspect for prosecution, or due to "exceptional" circumstances such as the death of a doubtable or a victim'south refusal to cooperate with a prosecution. In 2019, police nationwide cleared 45.5% of tearing crimes that were reported to them and 17.ii% of the property crimes that came to their attending.

Both the percentage of crimes that are reported to police and the per centum that are solved have remained relatively stable for decades.

Which crimes are near probable to be reported to police, and which are about likely to exist solved?

Auto thefts most likely to be reported, murders most likely to be solved

Around 8-in-ten motor vehicle thefts (79.5%) were reported to law in 2019, making it by far the well-nigh unremarkably reported property crime tracked past BJS. Around half (48.5%) of household burglary and trespassing offenses were reported, as were 30% of personal thefts/larcenies and 26.8% of household thefts.

Amongst violent crimes, aggravated assault was the most likely to be reported to law enforcement (52.1%). It was followed by robbery (46.6%), elementary attack (37.9%) and rape/sexual set on (33.ix%).

The list of crimes cleared by police in 2019 looks different from the list of crimes reported. Law enforcement officers were generally much more likely to solve tearing crimes than property crimes, according to the FBI.

The most ofttimes solved fierce crime tends to be homicide. Police cleared effectually six-in-ten murders and non-negligent manslaughters (61.4%) last yr. The clearance rate was lower for aggravated assault (52.three%), rape (32.9%) and robbery (30.five%).

When it comes to belongings offense, law enforcement agencies cleared eighteen.4% of larcenies/thefts, 14.1% of burglaries and 13.8% of motor vehicle thefts.

Is the government doing anything to better its criminal offence statistics?

Yes. The FBI has long recognized the limitations of its electric current data collection arrangement and is planning to fully transition to a more comprehensive organization first in 2021.

The new system, known equally the National Incident-Based Reporting Organisation (NIBRS), will provide information on a much larger number of crimes, besides as details such equally the time of day, location and types of weapons involved, if applicative. Information technology will also provide demographic information, such as the age, sex, race and ethnicity of victims, known offenders and arrestees.

I key question looming over the transition is how many police departments volition participate in the new system, which has been in development for decades. In 2019, the most recent year bachelor, NIBRS received violent and property crime data from 46% of law enforcement agencies, covering 44% of the U.Southward. population that year. Some researchers have warned that the transition to a new system could leave important information gaps if more law enforcement agencies exercise not submit the requested information to the FBI.